Iraq Chain of Events

The Senate yesterday approved a bill that would fund the Iraq war but require troops to come home by March of 2008. The Senate’s approval came as a small yet significant surprise since it had appeared that the Republicans would recruit enough Democratic defectors to scuttle the bill.

The House approved a similar bill that would bring the troops home by the fall of 2008. Now, the two groups have to unify their bill and send it to President Bush to be signed into law. The President, however, has vowed to veto the bill.

But the President has been put in a corner by congress. If he vetoes the bill he risks further alienating the majority of Americans who believe that Iraq is a lost cause, if ever a worthy cause at all, and a horrible waste of American lives. By vetoing the bill, he may fortify support from the right, but his supporters remain a minority. The President will have to appropriate “emergency funding” for Iraq. He has unlimited power to appropriate unlimited funds. However, Congress has sent the message that if he draws out the Iraq war he is doing so against the will of the majority of the country. Bush will be acting unilaterally to keep America at war.

I don’t want to see the Iraq war continue to be a disaster. Despite my disdain for the President, I’d like to see the conflict in Iraq resolve peacefully, allowing the Americans to leave something good behind. I just don’t think this is possible, however, and that by staying we are quite simply continuing to pour gasoline on a raging fire.

The Sunnis and the Shiites will fight each other to death. The fighting will not end until each side has managed to wipe the other out of its midst. Then, the refugees on each side will gather forces and try to regain the territories they’ve been pushed out of, especially if those territories contain oil. Al Qaeda will continue to infiltrate the country to side with the Shia to kill the Sunnis. The Sunnis will continue to kill Shia. The Al Qaeda will run wild and gather recruits in a lawless country and go on jihad against anyone they don’t agree with. Weapons and money will flow in from Iran, weapons and money will flow through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, ultimately to make war on Israel. The Iranian and Al Qaeda presence will mobilize the religious fundamentalists in Jordan and destabilize a relatively peaceful and economically successful country run by a sincere man.

The expansion of Al Qaeda and Islamic fundamentalism will bring tensions to a head in Egypt, where fundamentalists are gaining power and the government is employing increasingly ruthless means to maintain control. When Hosni Mubarak dies the country could slide into chaos if his son isn’t a capable ruler. It could slide into chaos even if he is. And Israel will find itself surrounded once again by actively aggressive neighbors.

The Iraq war may not have been necessary for all of this to happen, but it has made such an outcome more likely.