Peak Oil is no Theory
Over the months I've read articles talking about the theory of peak oil. Peak oil is an easy to understand concept. It says that the world's production of oil will rise until oil is being extracted from wells as quickly as possible. At that point, oil production will level off and, as wells become depleted, production will fall. Unless the world curbs its appetite for oil, demand will rise and the price of gasoline and heating oil will go up too, dramatically.
Economists fear that the world economy could collapse if the price of oil rises too quickly. People won't have any money to spend on clothes, computers and nights at the cinema if we spend every dime heating and air conditioning our homes, driving our cars to work and buying propane to cook our food.
The fact is that peak oil is a fact, not a theory. The only question is when will we reach peak oil, how quickly will oil supplies decline thereafter and, most importantly, how will we react ahead of the peak oil plunge.
History suggests that mankind doesn't react to a threat until it becomes undeniably apparent. Peak oil will slap us all in the face when gasoline prices rise to the point at which we start to consider the long-unridden bicycle in the corner of our garage as a viable form of daily transportation. We'll "get" peak oil when we simply can no longer afford to heat our homes in winter, and when airplane tickets become so expensive that we give up a trip abroad to camp upstate instead. On a positive note, peak oil may make it so expensive to ship products from China to the U.S. that we become efficient producers of low cost goods once again.
Over the past 18 months mankind has gotten its first good look at peak oil. Demand for oil is rising due to the rapid growth of the economies of China, India and other developing countries. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has offered limited new oil capacity because it finally has no more. Last summer, a gallon of gas cost more than $4.
As a result, the American car industry crumbled as people stopped buying big SUVs and purchased fuel efficient Hondas and Toyotas instead. As gasoline prices ate into the budgets of working class people an oil friendly president finally started to take seriously the need to find alternate sources of energy, and began to promote wind and solar power and biofuels. Bicycle sales increased and the market for rickety 15 year old economy cars turned hot. In 2008 people paid list price for 1994 Geo Metro subcompacts with 150,000 miles of use.
The question now is when will the effects of peak oil become persistent, nagging, inescapable. When will the price of gasoline rise, never to fall appreciably again? When will peak oil begin to make our lives tougher without letting up?
Oil is a finite resource. It will run out. That isn't theory.
Economists fear that the world economy could collapse if the price of oil rises too quickly. People won't have any money to spend on clothes, computers and nights at the cinema if we spend every dime heating and air conditioning our homes, driving our cars to work and buying propane to cook our food.
The fact is that peak oil is a fact, not a theory. The only question is when will we reach peak oil, how quickly will oil supplies decline thereafter and, most importantly, how will we react ahead of the peak oil plunge.
History suggests that mankind doesn't react to a threat until it becomes undeniably apparent. Peak oil will slap us all in the face when gasoline prices rise to the point at which we start to consider the long-unridden bicycle in the corner of our garage as a viable form of daily transportation. We'll "get" peak oil when we simply can no longer afford to heat our homes in winter, and when airplane tickets become so expensive that we give up a trip abroad to camp upstate instead. On a positive note, peak oil may make it so expensive to ship products from China to the U.S. that we become efficient producers of low cost goods once again.
Over the past 18 months mankind has gotten its first good look at peak oil. Demand for oil is rising due to the rapid growth of the economies of China, India and other developing countries. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has offered limited new oil capacity because it finally has no more. Last summer, a gallon of gas cost more than $4.
As a result, the American car industry crumbled as people stopped buying big SUVs and purchased fuel efficient Hondas and Toyotas instead. As gasoline prices ate into the budgets of working class people an oil friendly president finally started to take seriously the need to find alternate sources of energy, and began to promote wind and solar power and biofuels. Bicycle sales increased and the market for rickety 15 year old economy cars turned hot. In 2008 people paid list price for 1994 Geo Metro subcompacts with 150,000 miles of use.
The question now is when will the effects of peak oil become persistent, nagging, inescapable. When will the price of gasoline rise, never to fall appreciably again? When will peak oil begin to make our lives tougher without letting up?
Oil is a finite resource. It will run out. That isn't theory.
posted by CatZoo at 8:38 AM
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